Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 4.332070 5.086796 5.921759 6.912273 8.053472 9.325211 10.847937
2025-08-31 3.065699 4.047833 5.253258 6.833624 8.842126 11.299917 14.524669
2025-09-07 2.420592 3.525724 5.003993 7.106947 9.998958 13.810052 19.180949
2025-09-14 1.919349 3.045827 4.669177 7.145496 10.785383 15.887657 23.514948
2025-09-21 1.561040 2.674168 4.387674 7.166389 11.493273 17.888478 27.939868
2025-09-28 1.293388 2.375974 4.145192 7.176261 12.144515 19.838566 32.473144
2025-10-05 1.199477 2.339357 4.299516 7.817094 13.835718 23.524845 40.021453
2025-10-12 1.059074 2.190041 4.233580 8.068605 14.905797 26.326095 46.446517
2025-10-19 0.943197 2.061218 4.177439 8.317945 15.985935 29.235411 53.319699
2025-10-26 0.820331 1.893154 4.018533 8.349379 16.670615 31.525257 59.347379
2025-11-02 0.687949 1.678001 3.731780 8.090743 16.778801 32.797065 63.696169
2025-11-09 0.565969 1.459559 3.400584 7.690454 16.555970 33.427499 66.923183
2025-11-16 0.484670 1.319680 3.216269 7.574611 16.899087 35.187044 72.498478
2025-11-23 0.418735 1.202844 3.063445 7.504501 17.329703 37.166732 78.709610
2025-11-30 0.386097 1.163062 3.079289 7.808043 18.580116 40.883394 88.657991
2025-12-07 0.342457 1.084149 2.988333 7.852068 19.269861 43.527323 96.698561
2025-12-14 0.303698 1.009723 2.895160 7.875556 19.913262 46.132123 104.890049
2025-12-21 0.269549 0.940544 2.803002 7.886570 20.526293 48.725991 113.284761
2025-12-28 0.267713 0.969262 2.974579 8.585508 22.837040 55.211354 130.518715
2026-01-04 0.248744 0.939599 2.981831 8.859715 24.154622 59.614420 143.594759
2026-01-11 0.231394 0.911222 2.987932 9.131478 25.496272 64.189755 157.426247
2026-01-18 0.208260 0.857461 2.911111 9.165738 26.242709 67.462551 168.601010
2026-01-25 0.179070 0.774418 2.731359 8.883863 26.138843 68.730245 175.296378